So what does America’s health care workforce crisis actually mean for you, if you are a medical student or a newly qualified doctor? In plain terms, you are entering the most sought-after – and one of the most strained – professions in American health care. New modelling released this month projects the country’s health workforce shortage will nearly double by 2040, leaving America short of more than 2 million health care workers. The physician gap alone could reach 86,000 doctors by 2036. That gap will shape where you train, how hard you work, what you are paid, and which patients can reach you. I will walk you through the real numbers, why this shortage will not resolve itself quickly, and what it means for the choices you make in the next few years.
The scale of the health care workforce crisis, in real numbers
Every few years a new workforce model lands, and it is easy to file it under background noise. This one is worth your attention. In late September 2026, Covista – the country’s largest health care educator – published the Covista Healthcare Workforce Index, built with modelling by Oliver Wyman and drawn from more than 60 academic, government and industry datasets. Its headline findings:
- The shortage nearly doubles by 2040 without action. The gap between health workers needed and available is on track to nearly double over the next 14 years, with America potentially short of more than 2 million health care workers by 2040, according to Covista’s chief growth and innovation officer Michael Betz.
- It already costs families money. Unfilled health care positions cost the average US family about $430 a year today, and that could rise to $1,250 a year by 2040 if nothing changes. Rural and underserved communities bear the heaviest burden.
- Closing it saves lives, measurably. The model estimates that fixing the nursing shortage alone could save nearly 100,000 lives cumulatively by 2040, while closing the physician gap could add more than six months to average life expectancy and cut specialist wait times by 20%.
- It is not inevitable. Pairing workforce investment with care delivery innovation could close 92% of the projected 2040 gap. As Covista’s CEO Steve Beard put it, “This shortage is real, and Americans are feeling it. The math in this Index gives us real optimism, but it will take a different approach.”
The physician numbers come from the Association of American Medical Colleges. The AAMC’s most recent workforce report, published in March 2024 (The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections from 2021 to 2036), projects a physician shortage of up to 86,000 doctors by 2036, with a range of 13,500 to 86,000 depending on the scenario. And this is not only a future problem. The Health Resources and Services Administration has already designated 7,488 primary care Health Professional Shortage Areas, covering nearly 74 million people. The AAMC also estimates that if underserved populations used care at the same rate as people with fewer barriers to access, the country would need up to 202,800 more physicians just to meet current demand. You can read the AAMC’s summary on its physician workforce page.
One more number that tells the story of where the pipeline chokes: American nursing schools turned away roughly 93,000 qualified applications in 2025, per the Covista Index. The country does not only lack people willing to do this work. It lacks the training capacity to prepare them.
Why this is structural, not a post-COVID blip
It is tempting to blame the pandemic and move on. The models say otherwise. The Covista analysis describes the gap as structural: demand for health care workers is growing faster than the system’s ability to train them. Two forces drive demand. The first is demography – an aging population with more chronic disease, and the Baby Boomer generation moving into the ages of highest health care use. The second is attrition: burnout and early exits keep pulling experienced clinicians out of practice.
The supply side is the slower-moving tragedy. Medical school enrollment in the US is at historic highs – up more than 35% since 2002, with over 30 new MD-granting schools opening in that time. But the class of 2026, the largest in at least a decade at 22,189 MD graduates, still funnels into a residency system whose slots have grown far more slowly. The AAMC is backing bipartisan legislation to expand Medicare-supported residency positions by 14,000 over seven years, precisely because graduate medical education is where the physician pipeline narrows. Training a doctor takes the better part of a decade. There is no quick fix, which means the shortage baked in today will still be shaping your early career five to ten years from now.
Technology will help, but the same model is honest about its limits. Covista estimates AI could close up to 37% of the 2040 gap by automating documentation and admin work – while noting that AI-driven diagnosis can also surface previously unmet need, offsetting much of that gain. Breakthrough therapeutics such as GLP-1s could shrink the gap by about 21%, and redesigned care models by another 13%. None of it closes the gap alone. Tools ease pressure on the system; they do not replace the clinician.
What the health care workforce crisis means for new doctors
Headline numbers are abstract. Here is how this crisis shows up in the decisions you will make.
Your bargaining power is real, especially outside big cities
Shortage equals leverage, and the leverage is strongest where need is deepest. Only 2.3% of the 2026 residency applicant pool said they would prefer to practice in a rural area, according to AAMC data reported by Becker’s Hospital Review, while 45% preferred urban or suburban settings. Communities that almost everyone passes over will compete for you – with signing bonuses, loan repayment, and scope of practice you would not get in a saturated city market. I have written before about the doctor shortage in California’s San Joaquin Valley, where these dynamics have been playing out for years. If service in underserved places motivates you, the system is practically begging.
The tightest door is still training
Paradoxically, a national shortage does not make residency easy to get. The 2026 applicant pool included 21,286 US medical graduates alongside 20,700 international medical graduates and 8,409 osteopathic graduates, all competing for a residency slot count that has not kept pace with medical school growth. As a new doctor, the competition you feel most acutely is not for jobs after training – it is for the training itself. Plan your applications as if the shortage were irrelevant, because at the residency bottleneck, it nearly is.
Burnout becomes a career variable, not a personal failing
When systems are understaffed, the load lands on whoever is present. AAMC workforce researchers warn that as the physician gap grows, patients face longer waits – and practicing physicians absorb the strain, in a profession where burnout is already a serious concern. I see this as a new doctor too: staffing gaps quietly turn into moral injury when you cannot give each patient the time they deserve. Treat workload sustainability as part of your career planning, not something to deal with later. Ask about staffing ratios, call schedules and attrition when you evaluate training programs and first jobs.
This is a global story, and it widens your options
Workforce strain is not only American. Junior doctors in many countries are pushing back on pay and conditions – I covered the Nigeria doctors’ strike here on this site, and the underlying pressures will sound familiar. For you, the practical upshot is mobility. Countries competing for doctors create options: the 20,700 international graduates in the 2026 US residency pool are a reminder that the American system itself depends on doctors trained abroad. Keep an eye on where your skills are scarce, because scarcity travels.
Five practical ways to position yourself
- Think geography early. Research Health Professional Shortage Areas, state loan-repayment programs and rural track residencies before you rank programs. Need translates directly into negotiating power and often into faster responsibility.
- Build anti-burnout habits like a clinical skill. Boundaries, mentorship and honest conversations about workload are not soft extras. In an understaffed system they are what keep you in the profession long enough to become the senior doctor you want to be.
- Get fluent in the tools that ease the load. AI documentation, team-based care models and efficient triage are how the system plans to close part of this gap. The doctors who master them early will be the most effective – and the most employable.
- Consider primary care and generalism seriously. Nearly 74 million Americans live in designated primary care shortage areas. If you are undecided on specialty, let need be part of the calculation, not an afterthought.
- Follow the training-capacity money. Residency expansion, teaching-health-center funding and faculty pipeline programs decide where the new slots appear. The AAMC’s push for 14,000 more Medicare-supported positions over seven years is worth tracking if you are timing your training years.
Frequently asked questions
Will the doctor shortage make it easier to get into medical school or residency?
No. The shortage reflects demand outpacing the whole pipeline, but the training bottleneck is the tightest part of it. Medical school enrollment is at historic highs, and residency applicants – including more than 20,000 international graduates – compete for slots that have grown slowly. Prepare as rigorously as ever.
Which specialties are in greatest demand?
Primary care carries the sharpest documented need: 7,488 designated primary care shortage areas cover nearly 74 million Americans. Rural practice of almost any specialty is also in high demand, since only about 2% of new residency applicants prefer rural settings.
Is the workforce shortage really set to nearly double by 2040?
That is the Covista Healthcare Workforce Index’s projection under its most likely scenario, assuming no change in course. The same model estimates coordinated action on talent and care delivery could close 92% of the gap – so the figure is a warning, not a fate.
Can AI solve the health care workforce crisis?
Not alone. The Covista model credits AI with up to 37% of gap closure through admin automation, but warns that AI can also uncover unmet demand, offsetting much of the gain. Every modeled innovation still depends on having clinicians to do the work. Technology is an accelerant for a trained workforce, not a substitute for one.
What should medical students do right now?
Choose training with eyes open: look at staffing and attrition, not just prestige. Keep geography flexible, since underserved areas offer the strongest packages and the fastest responsibility. And build sustainable work habits early – the system you are entering needs you in it for decades, not just for residency.
Crises get written about; careers get built inside them. The health care workforce crisis will define your training years, but it also hands new doctors something previous generations did not have: a system that visibly, measurably needs them. Use that. Choose your geography and specialty with the data in front of you, protect your own sustainability like a clinical outcome, and remember that the patients in those shortage areas are not statistics. They are the reason the numbers matter.
Medically reviewed by Dr. Haiqa Afzal